Filing Flows › ExlService Holdings (EXLS) › Takeover & LBO
Is ExlService Holdings (EXLS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($53.86 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $32.06 a share (−23% against today's $41.43). Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $53.86 | today's $41.43 plus 30% |
| × shares | 152.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $511M | |
| − Cash | $333M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.4B | 20.5× EBITDA of $410M |
| Fees | $168M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.3B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $442M | $172M | $146M | $2.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.7B | $472M | $161M | $176M | $1.9B |
| Year 3 | $2.8B | $498M | $148M | $206M | $1.7B |
| Year 4 | $3.0B | $519M | $132M | $236M | $1.5B |
| Year 5 | $3.1B | $535M | $114M | $263M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.5B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.15× | on $6.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $41.43; the IRR reaches 20% at $32.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $45.57 | 7.7% |
| 20% | $49.72 | 5.1% |
| 30% | $53.86 | 2.9% |
| 40% | $58.00 | 0.9% |
| 50% | $62.14 | −0.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $410M | 17.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $63.5M | |
| Capital spending | $55.0M | |
| Debt | $511M | |
| Cash | $333M | |
| Share price | $41.43 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ExlService Holdings would cost about $58.00 a share, $8.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $47.52 | $7.3B |
| Median | 40% | $58.00 | $8.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $66.37 | $10.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ExlService Holdings' latest quarter
ExlService Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $634M (+20% year over year), operating margin 14.0%, net earnings $68.8M, operating cash flow $119M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ExlService Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ExlService Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($53.86 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $32.06 a share (−23% against today's $41.43).
What would a takeover of ExlService Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ExlService Holdings would cost about $58.00 a share, $8.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.