Filing Flows › Expedia Group (EXPE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Expedia Group (EXPE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($354.22 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $264.78 a share (−3% against today's $272.48). Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.34× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $354.22 | today's $272.48 plus 30% |
| × shares | 122.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $43.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.5B | |
| − Cash | $5.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $43.2B | 11.7× EBITDA of $3.7B |
| Fees | $864M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $20.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $23.7B | 54% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $17.5B | $4.0B | $1.6B | $1.2B | $19.2B |
| Year 2 | $18.7B | $4.3B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $17.8B |
| Year 3 | $19.7B | $4.5B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $16.1B |
| Year 4 | $20.6B | $4.7B | $1.2B | $1.9B | $14.2B |
| Year 5 | $21.2B | $4.8B | $1.1B | $2.1B | $12.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $43.4B | |
| − Debt left | $12.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $31.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.32× | on $23.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $272.48; the IRR reaches 20% at $264.78 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $299.73 | 13.1% |
| 20% | $326.98 | 9.0% |
| 30% | $354.22 | 5.7% |
| 40% | $381.47 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $408.72 | 0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $16.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.7B | 22.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $900M | |
| Capital spending | $810M | |
| Debt | $5.5B | |
| Cash | $5.6B | |
| Share price | $272.48 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Expedia Group would cost about $381.47 a share, $46.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $312.53 | $38.2B |
| Median | 40% | $381.47 | $46.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $436.51 | $53.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.34× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Expedia Group's latest quarter
Expedia Group, Q3 2026: revenue $4.9B (+12% year over year), operating margin 26.9%, net earnings $1.0B, operating cash flow −$1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Expedia Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Expedia Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($354.22 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $264.78 a share (−3% against today's $272.48).
What would a takeover of Expedia Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Expedia Group would cost about $381.47 a share, $46.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.