Filing Flows › Exponent (EXPO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Exponent (EXPO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($93.41 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $49.71 a share (−31% against today's $71.85). Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $93.41 | today's $71.85 plus 30% |
| × shares | 49.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $66.6M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.5B | 32.7× EBITDA of $138M |
| Fees | $90.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $758M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.8B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $683M | $149M | $58.0M | $54.3M | $704M |
| Year 2 | $729M | $159M | $53.8M | $64.7M | $639M |
| Year 3 | $769M | $168M | $48.9M | $74.9M | $564M |
| Year 4 | $802M | $175M | $43.2M | $84.8M | $479M |
| Year 5 | $826M | $180M | $36.7M | $94.0M | $385M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 25.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.5B | |
| − Debt left | $385M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $3.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $71.85; the IRR reaches 20% at $49.71 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $79.03 | 5.7% |
| 20% | $86.22 | 3.4% |
| 30% | $93.41 | 1.4% |
| 40% | $100.59 | −0.4% |
| 50% | $107.77 | −2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $632M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $138M | 21.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $10.3M | |
| Capital spending | $9.6M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $66.6M | |
| Share price | $71.85 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Exponent would cost about $100.59 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $82.41 | $4.0B |
| Median | 40% | $100.59 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $115.10 | $5.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Exponent's latest quarter
Exponent, Q3 2026: revenue $174M (+18% year over year), operating margin 24.1%, net earnings $30.9M, operating cash flow $63.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Exponent being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Exponent?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($93.41 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $49.71 a share (−31% against today's $71.85).
What would a takeover of Exponent cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Exponent would cost about $100.59 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.