Filing Flows › Ford Motor (F) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ford Motor (F) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.29 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $16.29 | today's $12.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 4,076.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $66.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $34.1B | |
| + Other claims | $37.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $32.3B | 3.7× EBITDA of $8.9B |
| Fees | $646M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $21.0B | 2.4× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $12.0B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $184.4B | $8.7B | $1.6B | −$2.6B | $23.6B |
| Year 2 | $183.8B | $8.7B | $1.8B | −$2.8B | $26.3B |
| Year 3 | $185.3B | $8.8B | $2.0B | −$3.1B | $29.5B |
| Year 4 | $188.9B | $8.9B | $2.3B | −$3.6B | $33.1B |
| Year 5 | $194.5B | $9.2B | $2.5B | −$4.1B | $37.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 1.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $17.7B | |
| − Debt left | $37.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$19.5B | |
| Money multiple | -1.63× | on $12.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.53.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $13.78 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $15.04 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $16.29 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $17.54 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $18.79 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $187.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $8.9B | 4.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $16.0B | |
| Capital spending | $9.8B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $34.1B | |
| Share price | $12.53 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ford Motor would cost about $16.60 a share, $67.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $15.04 | $61.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $16.60 | $67.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $19.02 | $77.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ford Motor's latest quarter
Ford Motor, Q3 2026: revenue $49.5B (-2% year over year), operating margin 2.9%, net earnings $2.0B, operating cash flow $5.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ford Motor being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ford Motor?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.29 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Ford Motor cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ford Motor would cost about $16.60 a share, $67.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.