Filing Flows › Diamondback Energy (FANG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Diamondback Energy (FANG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($233.45 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $154.16 a share (−14% against today's $179.58). At $82.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $233.45 | today's $179.58 plus 30% |
| × shares | 280.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $65.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $11.7B | |
| − Cash | $558M | |
| + Other claims | $6.2B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $82.6B | 10.8× EBITDA of $7.6B |
| Fees | $1.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $41.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $42.4B | 50% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $20.1B | $8.2B | $3.2B | $523M | $41.4B |
| Year 2 | $21.5B | $8.8B | $3.2B | $838M | $40.5B |
| Year 3 | $22.6B | $9.3B | $3.1B | $1.1B | $39.4B |
| Year 4 | $23.6B | $9.7B | $3.0B | $1.4B | $38.0B |
| Year 5 | $24.3B | $10.0B | $2.9B | $1.7B | $36.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $88.2B | |
| − Debt left | $36.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $52.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.23× | on $42.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $179.58; the IRR reaches 20% at $154.16 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $197.54 | 10.1% |
| 20% | $215.50 | 6.9% |
| 30% | $233.45 | 4.2% |
| 40% | $251.41 | 1.8% |
| 50% | $269.37 | −0.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $18.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.6B | 40.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $5.3B | |
| Capital spending | $4.0B | |
| Debt | $11.7B | |
| Cash | $558M | |
| Share price | $179.58 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diamondback Energy would cost about $237.94 a share, $66.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $215.50 | $60.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $237.94 | $66.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $272.60 | $76.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Diamondback Energy's latest quarter
Diamondback Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $5.4B (+38% year over year), operating margin 46.0%, net earnings $1.6B, operating cash flow $2.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Diamondback Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Diamondback Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($233.45 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $154.16 a share (−14% against today's $179.58). At $82.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Diamondback Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diamondback Energy would cost about $237.94 a share, $66.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.