Filing Flows › Flywire (FLYW) › Takeover & LBO
Is Flywire (FLYW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($24.39 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.07× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $24.39 | today's $18.76 plus 30% |
| × shares | 129.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $15.0M | |
| − Cash | $294M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.9B | 32.4× EBITDA of $88.9M |
| Fees | $57.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $489M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.5B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $825M | $96.0M | $37.4M | $46.1M | $443M |
| Year 2 | $880M | $102M | $33.9M | $55.0M | $388M |
| Year 3 | $929M | $108M | $29.7M | $64.0M | $324M |
| Year 4 | $968M | $113M | $24.8M | $72.8M | $251M |
| Year 5 | $997M | $116M | $19.2M | $81.2M | $170M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 24.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.8B | |
| − Debt left | $170M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $2.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $18.76.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $20.64 | 6.2% |
| 20% | $22.51 | 3.7% |
| 30% | $24.39 | 1.5% |
| 40% | $26.26 | −0.4% |
| 50% | $28.14 | −2.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $764M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $88.9M | 11.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $29.1M | |
| Capital spending | $1.0M | |
| Debt | $15.0M | |
| Cash | $294M | |
| Share price | $18.76 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Flywire would cost about $26.26 a share, $3.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $21.52 | $2.8B |
| Median | 40% | $26.26 | $3.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $30.05 | $3.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.07× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Flywire's latest quarter
Flywire, Q3 2026: revenue $250M (+25% year over year), operating margin 21.1%, net earnings $74.5M, operating cash flow $125M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Flywire being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Flywire?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($24.39 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Flywire cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Flywire would cost about $26.26 a share, $3.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.