Filing Flows › Freshpet (FRPT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Freshpet (FRPT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($86.01 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $86.01 | today's $66.16 plus 30% |
| × shares | 54.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $351M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.4B | 21.9× EBITDA of $199M |
| Fees | $87.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.3B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $215M | $83.8M | −$39.2M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $230M | $86.8M | −$38.0M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $1.5B | $242M | $89.7M | −$36.9M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $252M | $92.5M | −$35.8M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $1.6B | $260M | $95.3M | −$35.0M | $1.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.3B | |
| − Debt left | $1.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.89× | on $3.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $66.16.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $72.78 | 2.8% |
| 20% | $79.39 | 0.1% |
| 30% | $86.01 | −2.2% |
| 40% | $92.62 | −4.3% |
| 50% | $99.24 | −6.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $199M | 16.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $93.5M | |
| Capital spending | $146M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $351M | |
| Share price | $66.16 | on Oct 13, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Freshpet would cost about $87.66 a share, $4.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $79.39 | $4.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $87.66 | $4.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $100.43 | $5.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Freshpet's latest quarter
Freshpet, Q3 2026: revenue $318M (+10% year over year), operating margin 11.1%, net earnings $29.7M, operating cash flow $60.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Freshpet being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Freshpet?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($86.01 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Freshpet cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Freshpet would cost about $87.66 a share, $4.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.