Filing Flows › First Solar (FSLR) › Takeover & LBO
Is First Solar (FSLR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($226.72 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $226.72 | today's $174.40 plus 30% |
| × shares | 107.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $24.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $108M | |
| − Cash | $1.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $22.9B | 9.2× EBITDA of $2.5B |
| Fees | $458M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $13.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $9.7B | 42% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.0B | $2.5B | $1.0B | $718M | $12.9B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $2.5B | $989M | $768M | $12.2B |
| Year 3 | $5.0B | $2.5B | $930M | $834M | $11.3B |
| Year 4 | $5.1B | $2.5B | $867M | $920M | $10.4B |
| Year 5 | $5.3B | $2.6B | $796M | $1.0B | $9.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.3B | |
| − Debt left | $9.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.91× | on $9.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $174.40.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $191.84 | 8.3% |
| 20% | $209.28 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $226.72 | −1.8% |
| 40% | $244.16 | −5.2% |
| 50% | $261.60 | −8.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.5B | 49.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $592M | |
| Capital spending | $606M | |
| Debt | $108M | |
| Cash | $1.6B | |
| Share price | $174.40 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, First Solar would cost about $226.72 a share, $24.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $195.33 | $21.0B |
| Median | 30% | $226.72 | $24.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $228.46 | $24.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
First Solar's latest quarter
First Solar, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (-23% year over year), operating margin 44.4%, net earnings $571M, operating cash flow −$42.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is First Solar being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy First Solar?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($226.72 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of First Solar cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, First Solar would cost about $226.72 a share, $24.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.