Filing Flows › Liberty Media (FWONA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Liberty Media (FWONA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($110.67 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $54.84 a share (−36% against today's $85.13). Historically 7.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.41× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $110.67 | today's $85.13 plus 30% |
| × shares | 264.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $29.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.5B | |
| − Cash | $2.3B | |
| + Other claims | $22.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $32.4B | 31.0× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $649M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $27.3B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.8B | $1.1B | $441M | $409M | $5.3B |
| Year 2 | $5.2B | $1.2B | $409M | $485M | $4.9B |
| Year 3 | $5.4B | $1.3B | $372M | $559M | $4.3B |
| Year 4 | $5.7B | $1.3B | $329M | $631M | $3.7B |
| Year 5 | $5.9B | $1.4B | $281M | $697M | $3.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 24.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $33.5B | |
| − Debt left | $3.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $30.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $27.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $85.13; the IRR reaches 20% at $54.84 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $93.64 | 6.1% |
| 20% | $102.16 | 4.1% |
| 30% | $110.67 | 2.3% |
| 40% | $119.18 | 0.6% |
| 50% | $127.69 | −0.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 23.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $452M | |
| Capital spending | $171M | |
| Debt | $5.5B | |
| Cash | $2.3B | |
| Share price | $85.13 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Liberty Media would cost about $112.80 a share, $29.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $102.16 | $27.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $112.80 | $29.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $129.23 | $34.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.41× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Liberty Media's latest quarter
Liberty Media, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+13% year over year), operating margin 19.3%, net earnings $163M, operating cash flow $382M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Liberty Media being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Liberty Media?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($110.67 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $54.84 a share (−36% against today's $85.13).
What would a takeover of Liberty Media cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Liberty Media would cost about $112.80 a share, $29.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.