Filing Flows › GE Vernova (GEV) › Takeover & LBO
Is GE Vernova (GEV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,001.66 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $255.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-28): GE Vernova Agrees to Pay $9 Billion to Acquire Trench Group.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,001.66 | today's $770.51 plus 30% |
| × shares | 268.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $268.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.9B | |
| − Cash | $16.8B | |
| + Other claims | $1.2B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $255.7B | 60.1× EBITDA of $4.3B |
| Fees | $5.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $23.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $237.4B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $47.6B | $4.6B | $1.8B | $32.9M | $23.4B |
| Year 2 | $50.8B | $4.9B | $1.8B | $199M | $23.2B |
| Year 3 | $53.6B | $5.2B | $1.8B | $369M | $22.8B |
| Year 4 | $55.8B | $5.4B | $1.7B | $539M | $22.3B |
| Year 5 | $57.5B | $5.6B | $1.7B | $705M | $21.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 45.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $253.1B | |
| − Debt left | $21.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $231.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $237.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $770.51.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $847.56 | 3.5% |
| 20% | $924.61 | 1.4% |
| 30% | $1,001.66 | −0.5% |
| 40% | $1,078.71 | −2.2% |
| 50% | $1,155.76 | −3.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $44.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.3B | 9.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $2.1B | |
| Debt | $2.9B | |
| Cash | $16.8B | |
| Share price | $770.51 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, GE Vernova would cost about $1,078.71 a share, $289.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $883.77 | $236.9B |
| Median | 40% | $1,078.71 | $289.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $1,234.36 | $330.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-28 · news · GE Vernova Agrees to Pay $9 Billion to Acquire Trench Group
GE Vernova's latest quarter
GE Vernova, Q3 2026: revenue $12.6B (+27% year over year), operating margin 11.0%, net earnings $1.3B, operating cash flow $6.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is GE Vernova being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-28: GE Vernova Agrees to Pay $9 Billion to Acquire Trench Group. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy GE Vernova?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,001.66 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $255.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of GE Vernova cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, GE Vernova would cost about $1,078.71 a share, $289.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.