Filing Flows › Griffon (GFF) › Takeover & LBO
Is Griffon (GFF) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($131.42 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $84.34 a share (−17% against today's $101.09). Historically 10.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (2.06× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $131.42 | today's $101.09 plus 30% |
| × shares | 45.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.5B | |
| − Cash | $110M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.3B | 14.4× EBITDA of $504M |
| Fees | $145M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.6B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.0B | $544M | $212M | $178M | $2.6B |
| Year 2 | $3.2B | $581M | $198M | $213M | $2.4B |
| Year 3 | $3.3B | $613M | $182M | $247M | $2.1B |
| Year 4 | $3.5B | $639M | $163M | $280M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $3.6B | $658M | $142M | $312M | $1.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.33× | on $4.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $101.09; the IRR reaches 20% at $84.34 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $111.20 | 10.7% |
| 20% | $121.31 | 8.1% |
| 30% | $131.42 | 5.8% |
| 40% | $141.53 | 3.8% |
| 50% | $151.63 | 2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $504M | 18.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $44.7M | |
| Capital spending | $43.7M | |
| Debt | $1.5B | |
| Cash | $110M | |
| Share price | $101.09 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Griffon would cost about $141.53 a share, $6.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $115.95 | $5.2B |
| Median | 40% | $141.53 | $6.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $161.95 | $7.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 10.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (2.06× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Griffon's latest quarter
Griffon, Q3 FY26: revenue $481M (+7% year over year), operating margin 24.0%, net earnings $51.6M, operating cash flow $99.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Griffon being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Griffon?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($131.42 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $84.34 a share (−17% against today's $101.09).
What would a takeover of Griffon cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Griffon would cost about $141.53 a share, $6.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.