Filing Flows › Global Industrial (GIC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Global Industrial (GIC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($56.38 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $56.38 | today's $43.37 plus 30% |
| × shares | 38.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $119M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.0B | 15.7× EBITDA of $130M |
| Fees | $40.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $715M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.4B | 66% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.6B | $140M | $54.7M | $50.0M | $665M |
| Year 2 | $1.7B | $150M | $50.9M | $60.8M | $604M |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $158M | $46.2M | $71.7M | $533M |
| Year 4 | $1.9B | $165M | $40.7M | $82.3M | $450M |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $170M | $34.4M | $92.6M | $358M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.0B | |
| − Debt left | $358M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $1.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $43.37.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $47.71 | 10.1% |
| 20% | $52.04 | 6.7% |
| 30% | $56.38 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $60.72 | 1.5% |
| 50% | $65.05 | −0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $130M | 8.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $7.8M | |
| Capital spending | $3.5M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $119M | |
| Share price | $43.37 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Global Industrial would cost about $60.72 a share, $2.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $49.75 | $1.9B |
| Median | 40% | $60.72 | $2.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $69.48 | $2.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Global Industrial's latest quarter
Global Industrial, Q3 2026: revenue $390M (+10% year over year), operating margin 8.4%, net earnings $24.6M, operating cash flow $44.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Global Industrial being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Global Industrial?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($56.38 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Global Industrial cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Global Industrial would cost about $60.72 a share, $2.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.