Filing Flows › Global Payments (GPN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Global Payments (GPN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($126.95 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $78.88 a share (−19% against today's $97.65). Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.8× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-07): Pliant's $80M; $40B Global Payments take private; Kalepa's $470M valuation.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $126.95 | today's $97.65 plus 30% |
| × shares | 265.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $33.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $22.6B | |
| − Cash | $5.6B | |
| + Other claims | $635M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $51.3B | 13.7× EBITDA of $3.8B |
| Fees | $1.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $20.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $31.7B | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $12.4B | $4.1B | $1.6B | $1.4B | $19.2B |
| Year 2 | $13.3B | $4.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $17.5B |
| Year 3 | $14.0B | $4.6B | $1.3B | $2.1B | $15.4B |
| Year 4 | $14.6B | $4.8B | $1.2B | $2.4B | $13.1B |
| Year 5 | $15.0B | $4.9B | $999M | $2.7B | $10.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $56.9B | |
| − Debt left | $10.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $46.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.47× | on $31.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 8.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $97.65; the IRR reaches 20% at $78.88 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $107.42 | 12.0% |
| 20% | $117.18 | 9.9% |
| 30% | $126.95 | 8.0% |
| 40% | $136.71 | 6.3% |
| 50% | $146.48 | 4.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $11.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.8B | 32.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.0B | |
| Capital spending | $897M | |
| Debt | $22.6B | |
| Cash | $5.6B | |
| Share price | $97.65 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Global Payments would cost about $136.71 a share, $36.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $112.00 | $29.7B |
| Median | 40% | $136.71 | $36.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $156.44 | $41.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.8× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-07 · news · Pliant's $80M; $40B Global Payments take private; Kalepa's $470M valuation
- 2026-11-05 · news · Global Payments Buyout Talks Raise Legacy Processor Concerns
- 2026-11-04 · news · Private Equity Firm CD&R Explores Take-Private Of Global Payments In Potential $40B Deal
- 2026-11-04 · news · Global Payments buyout talks sharpen focus on valuation, financing risks
- 2026-11-02 · news · CD&R explores potential take-private deal for Global Payments – report
- 2026-11-02 · news · CD&R and GTCR reportedly explore take-private deal for Global Payments
- 2026-11-02 · news · Global Payments Buyout Talks Signal Pressure on Legacy Processors
- 2026-10-30 · news · Global Payments in Take-Private Talks With CD&R-Led Group
- 2026-10-30 · news · Global Payments the Target of a Potential Take-Private Bid From CD&R, FT Reports
- 2026-10-30 · news · Global Payments Stock (GPN) Soars on Rumors of Take-Private Talks Ahead of Earnings
Global Payments' latest quarter
Global Payments, Q3 2026: revenue $3.3B (+64% year over year), operating margin 7.4%, net earnings $281M, operating cash flow −$161M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Global Payments being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-07: Pliant's $80M; $40B Global Payments take private; Kalepa's $470M valuation. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Global Payments?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($126.95 a share) would return about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $78.88 a share (−19% against today's $97.65).
What would a takeover of Global Payments cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Global Payments would cost about $136.71 a share, $36.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.