Filing Flows › Grail (GRAL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Grail (GRAL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Grail on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$542M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $165M). Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.07× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Grail's EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$542M on revenue of $165M, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Grail would cost about $188.88 a share, $8.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $170.69 | $7.4B |
| Median | 35% | $188.88 | $8.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $202.87 | $8.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.07× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Grail's latest quarter
Grail, Q3 2026: revenue $37.5M (+4% year over year), operating margin -385.3%, net loss $104M, operating cash flow −$74.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Grail being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Grail?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Grail on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$542M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $165M). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Grail cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Grail would cost about $188.88 a share, $8.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.