Filing Flows › GSK (GSK) › Takeover & LBO
Is GSK (GSK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($65.43 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $33.15 a share (−34% against today's $50.33). At $281.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $65.43 | today's $50.33 plus 30% |
| × shares | 4,315.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $282.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $761M | |
| = Enterprise value | $281.6B | 27.5× EBITDA of $10.2B |
| Fees | $5.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $56.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $230.9B | 80% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $33.6B | $10.6B | $4.3B | $4.2B | $52.2B |
| Year 2 | $34.7B | $10.9B | $4.0B | $4.7B | $47.5B |
| Year 3 | $35.7B | $11.2B | $3.6B | $5.2B | $42.3B |
| Year 4 | $36.8B | $11.5B | $3.2B | $5.8B | $36.4B |
| Year 5 | $37.9B | $11.9B | $2.8B | $6.5B | $30.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $250.9B | |
| − Debt left | $30.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $220.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.96× | on $230.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $50.33; the IRR reaches 20% at $33.15 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $55.36 | 3.4% |
| 20% | $60.40 | 1.1% |
| 30% | $65.43 | −0.9% |
| 40% | $70.46 | −2.7% |
| 50% | $75.50 | −4.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $32.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.2B | 31.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.3B | |
| Capital spending | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $761M | |
| Share price | $50.33 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, GSK would cost about $67.95 a share, $293.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $61.40 | $265.0B |
| Median | 35% | $67.95 | $293.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $72.98 | $314.9B |
GSK's latest quarter
GSK, Q3 2026: revenue $8.9B (+4% year over year), operating margin 23.9%, net earnings $1.5B, operating cash flow $3.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is GSK being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy GSK?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($65.43 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $33.15 a share (−34% against today's $50.33). At $281.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of GSK cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, GSK would cost about $67.95 a share, $293.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.