Filing Flows › Hayward Holdings (HAYW) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hayward Holdings (HAYW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.47 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.60 a share (−16% against today's $12.67). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $16.47 | today's $12.67 plus 30% |
| × shares | 222.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $960M | |
| − Cash | $231M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.4B | 15.0× EBITDA of $292M |
| Fees | $87.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.9B | 64% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $314M | $123M | $125M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $335M | $113M | $149M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $352M | $102M | $172M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $367M | $88.8M | $195M | $966M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $378M | $73.9M | $217M | $749M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.6B | |
| − Debt left | $749M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.34× | on $2.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 6.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.67; the IRR reaches 20% at $10.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $13.94 | 10.8% |
| 20% | $15.20 | 8.2% |
| 30% | $16.47 | 6.0% |
| 40% | $17.74 | 4.0% |
| 50% | $19.00 | 2.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $292M | 25.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $50.1M | |
| Capital spending | $30.3M | |
| Debt | $960M | |
| Cash | $231M | |
| Share price | $12.67 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hayward Holdings would cost about $17.74 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $14.53 | $3.2B |
| Median | 40% | $17.74 | $3.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $20.30 | $4.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Hayward Holdings' latest quarter
Hayward Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $260M (+6% year over year), operating margin 19.3%, net earnings $32.4M, operating cash flow $53.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hayward Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hayward Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.47 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.60 a share (−16% against today's $12.67).
What would a takeover of Hayward Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hayward Holdings would cost about $17.74 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.