Filing Flows › Heico (HEI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Heico (HEI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($434.02 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $210.38 a share (−37% against today's $333.86). At $63.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $434.02 | today's $333.86 plus 30% |
| × shares | 141.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $61.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.5B | |
| − Cash | $241M | |
| + Other claims | $77.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $63.7B | 43.6× EBITDA of $1.5B |
| Fees | $1.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $56.9B | 88% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.6B | $1.6B | $615M | $702M | $7.3B |
| Year 2 | $6.0B | $1.7B | $562M | $833M | $6.5B |
| Year 3 | $6.3B | $1.8B | $498M | $963M | $5.5B |
| Year 4 | $6.6B | $1.9B | $424M | $1.1B | $4.5B |
| Year 5 | $6.8B | $1.9B | $341M | $1.2B | $3.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 33.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $64.7B | |
| − Debt left | $3.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $61.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $56.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $333.86; the IRR reaches 20% at $210.38 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $367.25 | 5.4% |
| 20% | $400.63 | 3.4% |
| 30% | $434.02 | 1.5% |
| 40% | $467.40 | −0.1% |
| 50% | $500.79 | −1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.5B | 28.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $218M | |
| Capital spending | $81.0M | |
| Debt | $2.5B | |
| Cash | $241M | |
| Share price | $333.86 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Heico would cost about $467.40 a share, $66.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $382.94 | $54.1B |
| Median | 40% | $467.40 | $66.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $534.84 | $75.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Heico's latest quarter
Heico, Q3 FY26: revenue $1.4B (+23% year over year), operating margin 25.1%, net earnings $235M, operating cash flow $345M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Heico being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Heico?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($434.02 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $210.38 a share (−37% against today's $333.86). At $63.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Heico cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Heico would cost about $467.40 a share, $66.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.