Filing Flows › Houlihan Lokey (HLI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Houlihan Lokey (HLI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($179.40 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.33× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $179.40 | today's $138.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 67.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $12.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $134M | |
| − Cash | $837M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.3B | 20.5× EBITDA of $553M |
| Fees | $226M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.5B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $550M | $232M | $217M | $2.8B |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $553M | $216M | $230M | $2.6B |
| Year 3 | $2.6B | $560M | $198M | $246M | $2.3B |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $572M | $179M | $266M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $2.7B | $589M | $159M | $290M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.1B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.86× | on $8.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $138.00.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $151.80 | 2.0% |
| 20% | $165.60 | −0.6% |
| 30% | $179.40 | −3.0% |
| 40% | $193.20 | −5.0% |
| 50% | $207.00 | −6.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $553M | 21.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $34.6M | |
| Capital spending | $25.3M | |
| Debt | $134M | |
| Cash | $837M | |
| Share price | $138.00 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Houlihan Lokey would cost about $158.56 a share, $10.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $151.11 | $10.1B |
| Median | 14.9% | $158.56 | $10.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $184.37 | $12.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.33× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Houlihan Lokey's latest quarter
Houlihan Lokey, Q2 FY27: revenue $692M (+5% year over year), operating margin 22.3%, net earnings $109M, operating cash flow $252M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Houlihan Lokey being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Houlihan Lokey?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($179.40 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Houlihan Lokey cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Houlihan Lokey would cost about $158.56 a share, $10.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.