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Harley-Davidson earnings quality score

How much of the reported profit is backed by cash, and how many markers of managed earnings the filings show

Score66 / 100 · grade B · rank 519 of 1027

Harley-Davidson (HOG) scores 66 of 100 for earnings quality, grade B: rank 519 of 1027 companies and 114 of 287 in industrials. It loses the most points on accruals of -2.3% of assets, higher than 70% of companies (profit backed by cash), Montier C-score 4 of 6 checks failed, discretionary accruals of +3.1% of assets (modified Jones), smaller than most. It earns full or near-full marks for profit steadier than cash flow (smoothness 0.60), adjusted earnings 2% below GAAP, Beneish M-score -2.78: clean (below −2.22).

What earned and lost points

ComponentWhat the filings showPointsOf
Accrualsaccruals of -2.3% of assets, higher than 70% of companies (profit backed by cash)620
Beneish M-scoreBeneish M-score -2.78: clean (below −2.22)1515
Dechow F-scoreDechow F-score 0.24 (normal)1515
Montier C-scoreMontier C-score 4 of 6 checks failed515
Discretionary accrualsdiscretionary accruals of +3.1% of assets (modified Jones), smaller than most510
Piotroski F-scorePiotroski F-score 6 of 9710
Non-GAAP gapadjusted earnings 2% below GAAP910
Earnings smoothnessprofit steadier than cash flow (smoothness 0.60)45
HOG: share of the available points, by componentHOG: share of the available points, by componentAccruals30%Discretionary accruals51%Beneish M-score100%Dechow F-score100%Montier C-score33%Piotroski F-score67%Non-GAAP gap94%Earnings smoothness80%

How the score is built

Eight published measures, each scored against the whole universe or on its own scale and weighted: accruals 20, discretionary accruals 10, Beneish M 15, Dechow F 15, Montier C 15, Piotroski F 10, the non-GAAP gap 10, smoothness 5. A measure that cannot be computed (Beneish for a bank, say) drops out and the rest is rescaled, so every company is scored on what applies to it.

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Computed from the companies’ own XBRL filings (latest fiscal year) by published formulas; a statistical screen, not an audit or an accusation. A low score means the reported profit shows more of the markers of managed or low-quality earnings than its peers. Not investment advice.