Filing Flows › Honeywell International (HON) › Takeover & LBO
Is Honeywell International (HON) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($280.51 a share) would return about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $234.13 a share (9% against today's $215.78). At $100.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $280.51 | today's $215.78 plus 30% |
| × shares | 319.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $89.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $16.6B | |
| − Cash | $6.2B | |
| + Other claims | $237M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $100.2B | 8.0× EBITDA of $12.6B |
| Fees | $2.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $65.1B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $37.1B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $34.9B | $13.1B | $5.0B | $5.8B | $59.4B |
| Year 2 | $36.2B | $13.6B | $4.5B | $6.5B | $52.9B |
| Year 3 | $37.5B | $14.0B | $4.0B | $7.3B | $45.6B |
| Year 4 | $38.7B | $14.5B | $3.5B | $8.1B | $37.6B |
| Year 5 | $39.8B | $14.9B | $2.9B | $8.9B | $28.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $94.3B | |
| − Debt left | $28.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $65.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.77× | on $37.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 12.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $215.78; the IRR reaches 20% at $234.13 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $237.36 | 19.4% |
| 20% | $258.94 | 15.7% |
| 30% | $280.51 | 12.1% |
| 40% | $302.09 | 8.5% |
| 50% | $323.67 | 5.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $33.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $12.6B | 37.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.6B | |
| Capital spending | $980M | |
| Debt | $16.6B | |
| Cash | $6.2B | |
| Share price | $215.78 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Honeywell International would cost about $302.09 a share, $96.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $247.50 | $79.0B |
| Median | 40% | $302.09 | $96.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $345.68 | $110.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Honeywell International's latest quarter
Honeywell International, Q3 2026: revenue $5.0B (+1% year over year), operating margin 21.3%, net earnings $664M, operating cash flow $117M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Honeywell International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Honeywell International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($280.51 a share) would return about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $234.13 a share (9% against today's $215.78). At $100.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Honeywell International cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Honeywell International would cost about $302.09 a share, $96.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.