Filing Flows › HubSpot (HUBS) › Takeover & LBO
Is HubSpot (HUBS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($305.33 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $305.33 | today's $234.87 plus 30% |
| × shares | 49.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $15.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $13.8B | 38.3× EBITDA of $361M |
| Fees | $277M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $12.1B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $390M | $152M | $133M | $1.9B |
| Year 2 | $4.1B | $416M | $142M | $164M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.4B | $439M | $129M | $196M | $1.5B |
| Year 4 | $4.5B | $457M | $114M | $228M | $1.3B |
| Year 5 | $4.7B | $471M | $96.7M | $258M | $1.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $13.5B | |
| − Debt left | $1.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $12.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $234.87.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $258.36 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $281.84 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $305.33 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $328.82 | −1.2% |
| 50% | $352.31 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $361M | 10.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $169M | |
| Capital spending | $64.5M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $234.87 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, HubSpot would cost about $305.33 a share, $15.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $263.05 | $13.0B |
| Median | 30% | $305.33 | $15.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $307.68 | $15.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
HubSpot's latest quarter
HubSpot, Q3 2026: revenue $948M (+17% year over year), operating margin 7.6%, net earnings $83.0M, operating cash flow $238M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is HubSpot being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy HubSpot?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($305.33 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of HubSpot cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, HubSpot would cost about $305.33 a share, $15.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.