Filing Flows › Howmet Aerospace (HWM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Howmet Aerospace (HWM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($268.38 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $135.06 a share (−35% against today's $206.45). At $110.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $268.38 | today's $206.45 plus 30% |
| × shares | 400.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $107.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.4B | |
| − Cash | $507M | |
| = Enterprise value | $110.3B | 36.1× EBITDA of $3.1B |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $16.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $95.7B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.5B | $3.3B | $1.3B | $1.1B | $15.7B |
| Year 2 | $11.2B | $3.5B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $14.3B |
| Year 3 | $11.8B | $3.7B | $1.1B | $1.6B | $12.7B |
| Year 4 | $12.3B | $3.9B | $974M | $1.8B | $10.9B |
| Year 5 | $12.7B | $4.0B | $836M | $2.0B | $8.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $111.7B | |
| − Debt left | $8.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $102.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $95.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $206.45; the IRR reaches 20% at $135.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $227.09 | 5.4% |
| 20% | $247.74 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $268.38 | 1.4% |
| 40% | $289.03 | −0.3% |
| 50% | $309.67 | −1.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.1B | 31.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $324M | |
| Capital spending | $469M | |
| Debt | $3.4B | |
| Cash | $507M | |
| Share price | $206.45 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Howmet Aerospace would cost about $273.55 a share, $109.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $247.74 | $99.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $273.55 | $109.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $313.39 | $125.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Howmet Aerospace's latest quarter
Howmet Aerospace, Q3 2026: revenue $2.7B (+29% year over year), operating margin 28.7%, net earnings $567M, operating cash flow $709M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Howmet Aerospace being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Howmet Aerospace?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($268.38 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $135.06 a share (−35% against today's $206.45). At $110.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Howmet Aerospace cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Howmet Aerospace would cost about $273.55 a share, $109.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.