Filing Flows › Hexcel (HXL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hexcel (HXL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.19 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $53.64 a share (−31% against today's $77.84). Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.11× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $101.19 | today's $77.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 76.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $935M | |
| − Cash | $77.8M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.6B | 23.4× EBITDA of $368M |
| Fees | $172M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.8B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $396M | $155M | $109M | $1.9B |
| Year 2 | $2.3B | $421M | $146M | $133M | $1.8B |
| Year 3 | $2.4B | $443M | $136M | $156M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.5B | $462M | $124M | $179M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $475M | $111M | $201M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $6.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $77.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $53.64 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $85.62 | 6.4% |
| 20% | $93.41 | 4.3% |
| 30% | $101.19 | 2.3% |
| 40% | $108.98 | 0.6% |
| 50% | $116.76 | −1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $368M | 18.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $121M | |
| Capital spending | $86.8M | |
| Debt | $935M | |
| Cash | $77.8M | |
| Share price | $77.84 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hexcel would cost about $103.14 a share, $7.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $93.41 | $7.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $103.14 | $7.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $118.16 | $9.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.11× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Hexcel's latest quarter
Hexcel, Q3 2026: revenue $496M (+9% year over year), operating margin 11.0%, net earnings $38.6M, operating cash flow $74.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hexcel being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hexcel?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.19 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $53.64 a share (−31% against today's $77.84).
What would a takeover of Hexcel cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hexcel would cost about $103.14 a share, $7.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.