Filing Flows › Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($226.20 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $125.44 a share (−28% against today's $174.00). At $152.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $226.20 | today's $174.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 563.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $127.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $26.3B | |
| − Cash | $936M | |
| + Other claims | $48.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $152.7B | 21.0× EBITDA of $7.3B |
| Fees | $3.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $40.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $115.8B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $15.2B | $7.8B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $36.5B |
| Year 2 | $16.2B | $8.4B | $2.8B | $4.0B | $32.5B |
| Year 3 | $17.1B | $8.8B | $2.5B | $4.6B | $27.8B |
| Year 4 | $17.8B | $9.2B | $2.1B | $5.2B | $22.6B |
| Year 5 | $18.3B | $9.5B | $1.7B | $5.8B | $16.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $161.1B | |
| − Debt left | $16.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $144.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $115.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $174.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $125.44 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $191.40 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $208.80 | 6.4% |
| 30% | $226.20 | 4.5% |
| 40% | $243.60 | 2.8% |
| 50% | $261.00 | 1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $14.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.3B | 51.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.6B | |
| Capital spending | $484M | |
| Debt | $26.3B | |
| Cash | $936M | |
| Share price | $174.00 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Intercontinental Exchange would cost about $199.93 a share, $112.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $190.53 | $107.3B |
| Median | 14.9% | $199.93 | $112.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $232.46 | $130.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Intercontinental Exchange's latest quarter
Intercontinental Exchange, Q3 2026: revenue $3.6B (+21% year over year), operating margin 38.8%, net earnings $940M, operating cash flow $1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Intercontinental Exchange being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Intercontinental Exchange?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($226.20 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $125.44 a share (−28% against today's $174.00). At $152.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Intercontinental Exchange cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Intercontinental Exchange would cost about $199.93 a share, $112.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.