Filing Flows › Illumina (ILMN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Illumina (ILMN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($306.79 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.41× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $306.79 | today's $235.99 plus 30% |
| × shares | 154.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $47.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $45.9B | 37.1× EBITDA of $1.2B |
| Fees | $918M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $40.0B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.8B | $1.3B | $520M | $503M | $6.3B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $1.4B | $482M | $587M | $5.7B |
| Year 3 | $5.3B | $1.4B | $437M | $672M | $5.0B |
| Year 4 | $5.5B | $1.5B | $386M | $758M | $4.3B |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $1.5B | $328M | $843M | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $43.4B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $40.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $40.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $235.99.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $259.59 | 4.2% |
| 20% | $283.19 | 1.9% |
| 30% | $306.79 | 0.0% |
| 40% | $330.39 | −1.8% |
| 50% | $353.99 | −3.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.2B | 27.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $277M | |
| Capital spending | $173M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $235.99 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Illumina would cost about $330.39 a share, $50.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $270.68 | $41.7B |
| Median | 40% | $330.39 | $50.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $378.06 | $58.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.41× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Illumina's latest quarter
Illumina, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+4% year over year), operating margin 27.0%, net earnings $220M, operating cash flow $419M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Illumina being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Illumina?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($306.79 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Illumina cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Illumina would cost about $330.39 a share, $50.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.