Filing Flows › Ingles Markets (IMKTA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ingles Markets (IMKTA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($108.35 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $71.33 a share (−14% against today's $83.35). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $108.35 | today's $83.35 plus 30% |
| × shares | 19.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $515M | |
| − Cash | $455M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.1B | 8.0× EBITDA of $264M |
| Fees | $42.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $784M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.5B | $267M | $105M | $46.3M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $5.6B | $271M | $102M | $48.2M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $5.7B | $276M | $98.1M | $50.8M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $5.8B | $283M | $94.2M | $54.2M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $6.0B | $292M | $90.0M | $58.3M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $696M | |
| Money multiple | 0.89× | on $784M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $83.35; the IRR reaches 20% at $71.33 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $91.69 | 7.8% |
| 20% | $100.02 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $108.35 | −2.4% |
| 40% | $116.69 | −7.3% |
| 50% | $125.02 | −10.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $264M | 4.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $121M | |
| Capital spending | $99.5M | |
| Debt | $515M | |
| Cash | $455M | |
| Share price | $83.35 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ingles Markets would cost about $110.44 a share, $2.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $100.02 | $1.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $110.44 | $2.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $126.53 | $2.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ingles Markets' latest quarter
Ingles Markets, Q3 FY26: revenue $1.4B (+2% year over year), operating margin 2.5%, net earnings $25.9M, operating cash flow $67.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ingles Markets being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ingles Markets?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($108.35 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $71.33 a share (−14% against today's $83.35).
What would a takeover of Ingles Markets cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ingles Markets would cost about $110.44 a share, $2.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.