Filing Flows › Ingredion (INGR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ingredion (INGR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($119.05 a share) would return a loss of about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $67.47 a share (−26% against today's $91.58). Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $119.05 | today's $91.58 plus 30% |
| × shares | 63.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.8B | |
| − Cash | $989M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.4B | 8.1× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $167M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.4B | 5.3× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $3.1B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.1B | $1.0B | $416M | $63.8M | $5.4B |
| Year 2 | $7.1B | $1.0B | $411M | $67.4M | $5.3B |
| Year 3 | $7.2B | $1.0B | $406M | $67.9M | $5.2B |
| Year 4 | $7.3B | $1.1B | $401M | $72.0M | $5.2B |
| Year 5 | $7.6B | $1.1B | $395M | $80.0M | $5.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.0B | |
| − Debt left | $5.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.60× | on $3.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −9.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $91.58; the IRR reaches 20% at $67.47 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $100.74 | 1.5% |
| 20% | $109.90 | −3.8% |
| 30% | $119.05 | −9.6% |
| 40% | $128.21 | −14.8% |
| 50% | $137.37 | −17.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 14.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $222M | |
| Capital spending | $447M | |
| Debt | $1.8B | |
| Cash | $989M | |
| Share price | $91.58 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ingredion would cost about $121.34 a share, $7.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $109.90 | $7.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $121.34 | $7.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $139.02 | $8.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ingredion's latest quarter
Ingredion, Q3 2026: revenue $1.8B (-1% year over year), operating margin 11.2%, net earnings $142M, operating cash flow $266M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ingredion being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ingredion?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($119.05 a share) would return a loss of about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $67.47 a share (−26% against today's $91.58).
What would a takeover of Ingredion cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ingredion would cost about $121.34 a share, $7.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.