Filing Flows › Innospec (IOSP) › Takeover & LBO
Is Innospec (IOSP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($129.86 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $129.86 | today's $99.89 plus 30% |
| × shares | 24.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $252M | |
| + Other claims | $7.4M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.0B | 14.6× EBITDA of $204M |
| Fees | $59.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.9B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.0B | $213M | $85.7M | $42.3M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $222M | $82.4M | $50.5M | $1.0B |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $231M | $78.6M | $59.0M | $968M |
| Year 4 | $2.2B | $239M | $74.1M | $67.7M | $900M |
| Year 5 | $2.3B | $246M | $68.9M | $76.6M | $824M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.7B | |
| − Debt left | $824M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $1.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $99.89.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $109.88 | 5.9% |
| 20% | $119.87 | 2.4% |
| 30% | $129.86 | −0.4% |
| 40% | $139.85 | −2.9% |
| 50% | $149.84 | −5.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $204M | 10.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $38.9M | |
| Capital spending | $57.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $252M | |
| Share price | $99.89 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Innospec would cost about $132.35 a share, $3.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $119.87 | $3.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $132.35 | $3.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $151.63 | $3.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Innospec's latest quarter
Innospec, Q3 2026: revenue $474M (+7% year over year), operating margin 8.8%, net earnings $31.6M, operating cash flow $17.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Innospec being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Innospec?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($129.86 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Innospec cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Innospec would cost about $132.35 a share, $3.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.