Filing Flows › IPG Photonics (IPGP) › Takeover & LBO
Is IPG Photonics (IPGP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.75 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.88× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $101.75 | today's $78.27 plus 30% |
| × shares | 42.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $16.0M | |
| − Cash | $871M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.5B | 39.8× EBITDA of $88.0M |
| Fees | $70.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $484M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.1B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $95.0M | $37.0M | −$32.5M | $516M |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $101M | $39.5M | −$33.3M | $550M |
| Year 3 | $1.3B | $107M | $42.1M | −$34.1M | $584M |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $112M | $44.7M | −$34.7M | $619M |
| Year 5 | $1.4B | $115M | $47.3M | −$35.4M | $654M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.3B | |
| − Debt left | $654M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.6B | |
| Money multiple | 0.84× | on $3.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $78.27.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $86.10 | 1.6% |
| 20% | $93.92 | −1.0% |
| 30% | $101.75 | −3.3% |
| 40% | $109.58 | −5.3% |
| 50% | $117.41 | −7.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $88.0M | 8.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $67.1M | |
| Capital spending | $75.6M | |
| Debt | $16.0M | |
| Cash | $871M | |
| Share price | $78.27 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, IPG Photonics would cost about $101.75 a share, $4.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $87.66 | $3.8B |
| Median | 30% | $101.75 | $4.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $102.53 | $4.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.88× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
IPG Photonics' latest quarter
IPG Photonics, Q3 2026: revenue $288M (+15% year over year), operating margin 7.2%, net earnings $20.3M, operating cash flow $46.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is IPG Photonics being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy IPG Photonics?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.75 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of IPG Photonics cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, IPG Photonics would cost about $101.75 a share, $4.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.