Filing Flows › Iridium Communications (IRDM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Iridium Communications (IRDM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($61.71 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.18 a share (−41% against today's $47.47). Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.79× the average). Latest signal (2026-08-26): Agreed sale at $27.0 cash a share · pending.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $61.71 | today's $47.47 plus 30% |
| × shares | 108.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.8B | |
| − Cash | $97.9M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.4B | 21.3× EBITDA of $394M |
| Fees | $168M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.4B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $935M | $408M | $166M | $119M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $968M | $422M | $157M | $133M | $1.9B |
| Year 3 | $999M | $436M | $146M | $149M | $1.8B |
| Year 4 | $1.0B | $450M | $135M | $165M | $1.6B |
| Year 5 | $1.1B | $463M | $123M | $181M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $6.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $47.47; the IRR reaches 20% at $28.18 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $52.22 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $56.96 | 2.5% |
| 30% | $61.71 | 0.7% |
| 40% | $66.46 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $71.20 | −2.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $903M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $394M | 43.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $222M | |
| Capital spending | $113M | |
| Debt | $1.8B | |
| Cash | $97.9M | |
| Share price | $47.47 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Iridium Communications would cost about $62.90 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $56.96 | $6.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $62.90 | $6.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $72.06 | $7.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.79× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-08-26 · deal · Agreed sale at $27.0 cash a share · pending
- 2026-08-26 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Iridium Communications' latest quarter
Iridium Communications, Q3 2026: revenue $246M (+8% year over year), operating margin 12.9%, net earnings $107M, operating cash flow $95.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Iridium Communications being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-08-26: Agreed sale at $27.0 cash a share · pending. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Iridium Communications?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($61.71 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.18 a share (−41% against today's $47.47).
What would a takeover of Iridium Communications cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Iridium Communications would cost about $62.90 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.