Filing Flows › ST JOE (JOE) › Takeover & LBO
Is ST JOE (JOE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.32 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $48.98 a share (−24% against today's $64.86). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $84.32 | today's $64.86 plus 30% |
| × shares | 56.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $370M | |
| − Cash | $117M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.0B | 22.9× EBITDA of $220M |
| Fees | $101M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.9B | 76% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $586M | $238M | $92.6M | $113M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $626M | $254M | $83.9M | $133M | $964M |
| Year 3 | $660M | $268M | $73.7M | $152M | $812M |
| Year 4 | $688M | $279M | $62.1M | $171M | $641M |
| Year 5 | $709M | $287M | $49.0M | $188M | $452M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.1B | |
| − Debt left | $452M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.19× | on $3.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $64.86; the IRR reaches 20% at $48.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $71.35 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $77.83 | 5.7% |
| 30% | $84.32 | 3.6% |
| 40% | $90.80 | 1.7% |
| 50% | $97.29 | 0.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $543M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $220M | 40.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $46.1M | |
| Capital spending | $4.5M | |
| Debt | $370M | |
| Cash | $117M | |
| Share price | $64.86 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ST JOE would cost about $85.94 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $77.83 | $4.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $85.94 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $98.46 | $5.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ST JOE's latest quarter
ST JOE, Q3 2026: revenue $156M (-3% year over year), operating margin 39.4%, net earnings $36.9M, operating cash flow $57.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ST JOE being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ST JOE?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.32 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $48.98 a share (−24% against today's $64.86).
What would a takeover of ST JOE cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ST JOE would cost about $85.94 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.