Filing Flows › Kadant (KAI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Kadant (KAI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($341.11 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $202.87 a share (−23% against today's $262.39). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.95× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $341.11 | today's $262.39 plus 30% |
| × shares | 11.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $511M | |
| − Cash | $135M | |
| + Other claims | $10.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.4B | 19.2× EBITDA of $231M |
| Fees | $88.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.2B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $249M | $97.0M | $91.3M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $266M | $90.1M | $109M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $281M | $81.8M | $125M | $943M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $292M | $72.2M | $142M | $802M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $301M | $61.3M | $157M | $645M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.6B | |
| − Debt left | $645M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $3.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $262.39; the IRR reaches 20% at $202.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $288.63 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $314.87 | 6.0% |
| 30% | $341.11 | 3.8% |
| 40% | $367.35 | 1.9% |
| 50% | $393.58 | 0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $231M | 20.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $57.3M | |
| Capital spending | $23.4M | |
| Debt | $511M | |
| Cash | $135M | |
| Share price | $262.39 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 29% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kadant would cost about $367.35 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $300.96 | $3.6B |
| Median | 40% | $367.35 | $4.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $420.35 | $5.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.95× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Kadant's latest quarter
Kadant, Q3 2026: revenue $313M (+15% year over year), operating margin 17.1%, net earnings $35.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Kadant being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Kadant?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($341.11 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $202.87 a share (−23% against today's $262.39).
What would a takeover of Kadant cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kadant would cost about $367.35 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.