Filing Flows › Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) › Takeover & LBO
Is Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($139.89 a share) would return about 15% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $120.88 a share (12% against today's $107.61). Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.78× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $139.89 | today's $107.61 plus 30% |
| × shares | 16.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.0B | |
| − Cash | $117M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.3B | 7.0× EBITDA of $466M |
| Fees | $65.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.1B | 4.6× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.2B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.9B | $503M | $163M | $140M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $5.2B | $537M | $153M | $171M | $1.8B |
| Year 3 | $5.5B | $567M | $140M | $202M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $5.7B | $591M | $124M | $234M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $5.9B | $609M | $106M | $263M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.6B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.5B | |
| Money multiple | 2.02× | on $1.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 15.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $107.61; the IRR reaches 20% at $120.88 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $118.37 | 20.7% |
| 20% | $129.13 | 17.8% |
| 30% | $139.89 | 15.1% |
| 40% | $150.65 | 12.4% |
| 50% | $161.41 | 9.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $466M | 10.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $119M | |
| Capital spending | $103M | |
| Debt | $1.0B | |
| Cash | $117M | |
| Share price | $107.61 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kaiser Aluminum would cost about $142.58 a share, $2.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $129.13 | $2.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $142.58 | $2.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $163.35 | $2.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.78× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Kaiser Aluminum's latest quarter
Kaiser Aluminum, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+44% year over year), operating margin 4.5%, net earnings $31.0M, operating cash flow $101M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Kaiser Aluminum being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Kaiser Aluminum?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($139.89 a share) would return about 15% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $120.88 a share (12% against today's $107.61).
What would a takeover of Kaiser Aluminum cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kaiser Aluminum would cost about $142.58 a share, $2.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.