Filing Flows › Kinross Gold (KGC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Kinross Gold (KGC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($29.04 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $21.43 a share (−4% against today's $22.34).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $29.04 | today's $22.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,199.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $34.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $34.8B | 8.0× EBITDA of $4.4B |
| Fees | $697M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $22.6B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $12.9B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.3B | $4.5B | $1.7B | $1.2B | $21.5B |
| Year 2 | $7.5B | $4.6B | $1.6B | $1.3B | $20.2B |
| Year 3 | $7.7B | $4.8B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $18.7B |
| Year 4 | $7.9B | $4.9B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $17.1B |
| Year 5 | $8.2B | $5.1B | $1.3B | $1.8B | $15.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $31.1B | |
| − Debt left | $15.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $15.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $12.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $22.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $21.43 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $24.57 | 13.3% |
| 20% | $26.81 | 8.7% |
| 30% | $29.04 | 4.1% |
| 40% | $31.28 | −0.5% |
| 50% | $33.51 | −4.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.4B | 62.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Capital spending | $1.2B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $22.34 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kinross Gold would cost about $29.60 a share, $35.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $26.81 | $32.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $29.60 | $35.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $33.91 | $40.7B |
Kinross Gold's latest quarter
Kinross Gold, FY2025: revenue $7.1B (+37% year over year), operating margin 46.5%, net earnings $2.4B, operating cash flow $3.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Kinross Gold being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Kinross Gold?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($29.04 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $21.43 a share (−4% against today's $22.34).
What would a takeover of Kinross Gold cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kinross Gold would cost about $29.60 a share, $35.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.