Filing Flows › Kinder Morgan (KMI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Kinder Morgan (KMI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($39.63 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.63 a share (−32% against today's $30.48). At $121.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $39.63 | today's $30.48 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,227.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $88.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $33.1B | |
| − Cash | $918M | |
| + Other claims | $1.2B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $121.6B | 15.6× EBITDA of $7.8B |
| Fees | $2.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $43.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $81.1B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $19.8B | $8.4B | $3.3B | $526M | $42.4B |
| Year 2 | $21.1B | $9.0B | $3.2B | $790M | $41.7B |
| Year 3 | $22.3B | $9.5B | $3.2B | $1.0B | $40.6B |
| Year 4 | $23.3B | $9.9B | $3.1B | $1.3B | $39.3B |
| Year 5 | $24.0B | $10.2B | $3.0B | $1.5B | $37.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $132.3B | |
| − Debt left | $37.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $94.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $81.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $30.48; the IRR reaches 20% at $20.63 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $33.53 | 7.0% |
| 20% | $36.58 | 4.9% |
| 30% | $39.63 | 3.1% |
| 40% | $42.68 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $45.73 | −0.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $18.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.8B | 42.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.5B | |
| Capital spending | $3.7B | |
| Debt | $33.1B | |
| Cash | $918M | |
| Share price | $30.48 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kinder Morgan would cost about $40.39 a share, $90.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $36.58 | $81.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $40.39 | $90.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $46.28 | $103.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Kinder Morgan's latest quarter
Kinder Morgan, Q3 2026: revenue $4.5B (+9% year over year), operating margin 25.6%, net earnings $764M, operating cash flow $1.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Kinder Morgan being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Kinder Morgan?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($39.63 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.63 a share (−32% against today's $30.48). At $121.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Kinder Morgan cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kinder Morgan would cost about $40.39 a share, $90.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.