Filing Flows › Knife River (KNF) › Takeover & LBO
Is Knife River (KNF) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($74.75 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.40 a share (−23% against today's $57.50). Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $74.75 | today's $57.50 plus 30% |
| × shares | 56.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $118M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.7B | 11.6× EBITDA of $490M |
| Fees | $114M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.1B | 54% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.6B | $529M | $206M | −$16.7M | $2.7B |
| Year 2 | $3.9B | $565M | $207M | −$4.5M | $2.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.1B | $596M | $208M | $7.8M | $2.7B |
| Year 4 | $4.3B | $621M | $207M | $19.8M | $2.7B |
| Year 5 | $4.4B | $640M | $206M | $31.2M | $2.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.1B | |
| − Debt left | $2.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $3.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $57.50; the IRR reaches 20% at $44.40 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $63.25 | 7.4% |
| 20% | $69.00 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $74.75 | 2.4% |
| 40% | $80.50 | 0.3% |
| 50% | $86.25 | −1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $490M | 14.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $215M | |
| Capital spending | $266M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $118M | |
| Share price | $57.50 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Knife River would cost about $76.19 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $69.00 | $3.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $76.19 | $4.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $87.28 | $5.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Knife River's latest quarter
Knife River, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+6% year over year), operating margin 16.8%, net earnings $138M, operating cash flow $195M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Knife River being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Knife River?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($74.75 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.40 a share (−23% against today's $57.50).
What would a takeover of Knife River cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Knife River would cost about $76.19 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.