Filing Flows › LandBridge (LB) › Takeover & LBO
Is LandBridge (LB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($112.12 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.62 a share (−41% against today's $86.25). Historically 6.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.37× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $112.12 | today's $86.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 77.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $536M | |
| − Cash | $39.8M | |
| = Enterprise value | $9.1B | 59.5× EBITDA of $153M |
| Fees | $183M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $844M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.5B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $243M | $166M | $64.6M | $84.6M | $759M |
| Year 2 | $260M | $177M | $58.1M | $100M | $659M |
| Year 3 | $274M | $187M | $50.4M | $115M | $544M |
| Year 4 | $286M | $195M | $41.6M | $130M | $413M |
| Year 5 | $294M | $200M | $31.6M | $144M | $269M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 46.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.3B | |
| − Debt left | $269M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $9.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $8.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $86.25; the IRR reaches 20% at $50.62 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $94.88 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $103.50 | 3.0% |
| 30% | $112.12 | 1.3% |
| 40% | $120.75 | −0.2% |
| 50% | $129.38 | −1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $225M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $153M | 68.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $15.1M | |
| Capital spending | $4.2M | |
| Debt | $536M | |
| Cash | $39.8M | |
| Share price | $86.25 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, LandBridge would cost about $99.10 a share, $7.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $94.44 | $7.3B |
| Median | 14.9% | $99.10 | $7.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $115.23 | $8.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.37× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
LandBridge's latest quarter
LandBridge, Q3 2026: revenue $70.9M (+40% year over year), operating margin 68.1%, net earnings $13.0M, operating cash flow $49.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is LandBridge being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy LandBridge?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($112.12 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.62 a share (−41% against today's $86.25).
What would a takeover of LandBridge cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, LandBridge would cost about $99.10 a share, $7.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.