Filing Flows › Leidos Holdings (LDOS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Leidos Holdings (LDOS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($176.55 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $117.93 a share (−13% against today's $135.81). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $176.55 | today's $135.81 plus 30% |
| × shares | 125.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $22.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.0B | |
| − Cash | $630M | |
| + Other claims | $53.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $27.5B | 11.7× EBITDA of $2.4B |
| Fees | $550M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $12.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $15.1B | 54% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $18.3B | $2.4B | $990M | $1.0B | $11.9B |
| Year 2 | $18.8B | $2.5B | $913M | $1.1B | $10.8B |
| Year 3 | $19.3B | $2.6B | $828M | $1.2B | $9.6B |
| Year 4 | $19.9B | $2.6B | $734M | $1.4B | $8.2B |
| Year 5 | $20.5B | $2.7B | $630M | $1.5B | $6.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $25.8B | |
| − Debt left | $6.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.26× | on $15.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $135.81; the IRR reaches 20% at $117.93 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $149.39 | 10.3% |
| 20% | $162.97 | 7.3% |
| 30% | $176.55 | 4.7% |
| 40% | $190.13 | 2.5% |
| 50% | $203.72 | 0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $17.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.4B | 13.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $304M | |
| Capital spending | $153M | |
| Debt | $6.0B | |
| Cash | $630M | |
| Share price | $135.81 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Leidos Holdings would cost about $176.55 a share, $22.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $152.11 | $19.0B |
| Median | 30% | $176.55 | $22.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $177.91 | $22.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Leidos Holdings' latest quarter
Leidos Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $4.6B (+4% year over year), operating margin 11.9%, net earnings $413M, operating cash flow $523M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Leidos Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Leidos Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($176.55 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $117.93 a share (−13% against today's $135.81).
What would a takeover of Leidos Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Leidos Holdings would cost about $176.55 a share, $22.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.