Filing Flows › Lear (LEA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lear (LEA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($148.33 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $100.37 a share (−12% against today's $114.10). Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.8× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $148.33 | today's $114.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 49.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.7B | |
| − Cash | $889M | |
| + Other claims | $144M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $9.4B | 6.3× EBITDA of $1.5B |
| Fees | $188M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.1B | 4.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $3.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $24.6B | $1.5B | $467M | $211M | $5.9B |
| Year 2 | $25.5B | $1.6B | $451M | $247M | $5.6B |
| Year 3 | $26.3B | $1.6B | $432M | $285M | $5.4B |
| Year 4 | $27.1B | $1.7B | $410M | $325M | $5.0B |
| Year 5 | $27.9B | $1.7B | $385M | $368M | $4.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.0B | |
| − Debt left | $4.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $3.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $114.10; the IRR reaches 20% at $100.37 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $125.51 | 11.9% |
| 20% | $136.92 | 8.2% |
| 30% | $148.33 | 4.6% |
| 40% | $159.74 | 0.9% |
| 50% | $171.15 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.5B | 6.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $608M | |
| Capital spending | $663M | |
| Debt | $2.7B | |
| Cash | $889M | |
| Share price | $114.10 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lear would cost about $151.18 a share, $7.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $136.92 | $6.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $151.18 | $7.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $173.20 | $8.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.8× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Lear's latest quarter
Lear, Q3 2026: revenue $5.8B (+2% year over year), operating margin 3.4%, net earnings $137M, operating cash flow $329M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lear being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Lear?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($148.33 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $100.37 a share (−12% against today's $114.10).
What would a takeover of Lear cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lear would cost about $151.18 a share, $7.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.