Filing Flows › Lennox International (LII) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lennox International (LII) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($441.01 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $261.75 a share (−23% against today's $339.24). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $441.01 | today's $339.24 plus 30% |
| × shares | 34.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $15.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $45.5M | |
| = Enterprise value | $16.8B | 14.5× EBITDA of $1.2B |
| Fees | $336M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $10.8B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.6B | $1.2B | $486M | $403M | $6.0B |
| Year 2 | $5.7B | $1.2B | $456M | $443M | $5.5B |
| Year 3 | $5.8B | $1.2B | $422M | $487M | $5.0B |
| Year 4 | $6.0B | $1.3B | $384M | $537M | $4.5B |
| Year 5 | $6.2B | $1.3B | $343M | $593M | $3.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $15.0B | |
| − Debt left | $3.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $10.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $339.24; the IRR reaches 20% at $261.75 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $373.16 | 5.8% |
| 20% | $407.09 | 3.0% |
| 30% | $441.01 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $474.94 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $508.86 | −3.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.2B | 21.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $130M | |
| Capital spending | $154M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $45.5M | |
| Share price | $339.24 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lennox International would cost about $474.94 a share, $16.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $389.11 | $13.4B |
| Median | 40% | $474.94 | $16.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $543.46 | $18.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Lennox International's latest quarter
Lennox International, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+10% year over year), operating margin 19.8%, net earnings $221M, operating cash flow $395M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lennox International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Lennox International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($441.01 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $261.75 a share (−23% against today's $339.24).
What would a takeover of Lennox International cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lennox International would cost about $474.94 a share, $16.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.