Filing Flows › Lionsgate Studios (LION) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lionsgate Studios (LION) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.18 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $7.06 a share (−43% against today's $12.45). It already carries 6.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.33× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-21): Lionsgate Studios Stock Jumps on Report of Takeover Bid by Legendary Entertainment.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $16.18 | today's $12.45 plus 30% |
| × shares | 297.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $358M | |
| + Other claims | $27.9M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $6.3B | 28.1× EBITDA of $226M |
| Fees | $127M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.2B | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.3B | $244M | $95.0M | $71.1M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $3.5B | $260M | $89.6M | $88.0M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $3.7B | $275M | $82.9M | $105M | $978M |
| Year 4 | $3.9B | $286M | $74.8M | $122M | $856M |
| Year 5 | $4.0B | $295M | $65.5M | $139M | $717M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 23.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.8B | |
| − Debt left | $717M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $5.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.45; the IRR reaches 20% at $7.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $13.70 | 6.5% |
| 20% | $14.94 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $16.18 | 3.2% |
| 40% | $17.43 | 1.8% |
| 50% | $18.67 | 0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $226M | 7.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $17.6M | |
| Capital spending | $13.2M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $358M | |
| Share price | $12.45 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lionsgate Studios would cost about $16.50 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $14.94 | $4.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $16.50 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $18.90 | $5.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.33× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-21 · news · Lionsgate Studios Stock Jumps on Report of Takeover Bid by Legendary Entertainment
- 2026-10-20 · news · Lionsgate Studios stock rises on takeover bid r...
Lionsgate Studios' latest quarter
Lionsgate Studios, Q2 FY27: revenue $669M (+41% year over year), operating margin 4.4%, net loss $15.6M, operating cash flow −$52.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lionsgate Studios being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-21: Lionsgate Studios Stock Jumps on Report of Takeover Bid by Legendary Entertainment. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Lionsgate Studios?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.18 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $7.06 a share (−43% against today's $12.45). It already carries 6.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Lionsgate Studios cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lionsgate Studios would cost about $16.50 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.