Filing Flows › Lumentum Holdings (LITE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lumentum Holdings (LITE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,092.91 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $398.15 a share (−53% against today's $840.70). At $111.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-02): MARVELL AND LUMENTUM TO COMBINE, CREATING A CATEGORY LEADER IN AI CONNECTIVITY.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,092.91 | today's $840.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 101.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $111.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.8B | |
| − Cash | $2.0B | |
| = Enterprise value | $111.9B | 96.8× EBITDA of $1.2B |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $107.8B | 94% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.8B | $1.2B | $487M | −$17.2M | $6.4B |
| Year 2 | $3.8B | $1.2B | $488M | −$14.5M | $6.4B |
| Year 3 | $3.9B | $1.2B | $489M | −$9.7M | $6.4B |
| Year 4 | $4.0B | $1.2B | $490M | −$2.7M | $6.4B |
| Year 5 | $4.1B | $1.3B | $490M | $6.7M | $6.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 74.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $95.3B | |
| − Debt left | $6.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $88.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.82× | on $107.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $840.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $398.15 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $924.77 | −0.3% |
| 20% | $1,008.84 | −2.1% |
| 30% | $1,092.91 | −3.8% |
| 40% | $1,176.98 | −5.3% |
| 50% | $1,261.05 | −6.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.2B | 30.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $279M | |
| Capital spending | $605M | |
| Debt | $2.8B | |
| Cash | $2.0B | |
| Share price | $840.70 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lumentum Holdings would cost about $1,092.91 a share, $111.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $941.58 | $95.8B |
| Median | 30% | $1,092.91 | $111.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $1,101.32 | $112.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-02 · 8-K deal · MARVELL AND LUMENTUM TO COMBINE, CREATING A CATEGORY LEADER IN AI CONNECTIVITY
- 2026-11-01 · news · Lumentum (LITE) Stock May Be 47% Undervalued After Buyout Talks
- 2026-10-31 · news · Lumentum Jumped on Reports Marvell Is in Late-Stage Talks to Acquire the Company. LITE Stock Is a Buy No Matter What.
- 2026-10-30 · news · Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Is In Advanced All Stock Acquisition Talks
- 2026-10-29 · news · Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Is Reportedly In Advanced Acquisition Talks
- 2026-10-29 · news · Stock Market Today, Oct. 29: Marvell Falls on Lumentum Acquisition Talks
- 2026-10-29 · news · Marvell stock falls on Lumentum acquisition talks, Piper holds rating
Lumentum Holdings' latest quarter
Lumentum Holdings, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.3B (+136% year over year), operating margin 28.5%, net earnings $360M, operating cash flow $268M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lumentum Holdings being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-02: MARVELL AND LUMENTUM TO COMBINE, CREATING A CATEGORY LEADER IN AI CONNECTIVITY. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Lumentum Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,092.91 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $398.15 a share (−53% against today's $840.70). At $111.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Lumentum Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lumentum Holdings would cost about $1,092.91 a share, $111.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.