Filing Flows › Lockheed Martin (LMT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lockheed Martin (LMT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($749.01 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $464.02 a share (−19% against today's $576.16). At $189.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $749.01 | today's $576.16 plus 30% |
| × shares | 231.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $173.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $21.7B | |
| − Cash | $6.0B | |
| = Enterprise value | $189.1B | 17.2× EBITDA of $11.0B |
| Fees | $3.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $60.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $132.4B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $85.3B | $11.9B | $4.6B | $3.9B | $56.6B |
| Year 2 | $91.0B | $12.7B | $4.3B | $4.8B | $51.8B |
| Year 3 | $96.0B | $13.3B | $4.0B | $5.7B | $46.1B |
| Year 4 | $100.0B | $13.9B | $3.5B | $6.6B | $39.5B |
| Year 5 | $103.0B | $14.3B | $3.0B | $7.4B | $32.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $194.1B | |
| − Debt left | $32.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $162.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $132.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $576.16; the IRR reaches 20% at $464.02 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $633.78 | 9.0% |
| 20% | $691.39 | 6.4% |
| 30% | $749.01 | 4.1% |
| 40% | $806.62 | 2.1% |
| 50% | $864.24 | 0.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $79.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $11.0B | 13.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.7B | |
| Capital spending | $1.7B | |
| Debt | $21.7B | |
| Cash | $6.0B | |
| Share price | $576.16 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lockheed Martin would cost about $806.62 a share, $186.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $660.86 | $153.0B |
| Median | 40% | $806.62 | $186.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $923.01 | $213.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Lockheed Martin's latest quarter
Lockheed Martin, Q3 2026: revenue $20.7B (+11% year over year), operating margin 11.8%, net earnings $1.8B, operating cash flow $3.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lockheed Martin being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Lockheed Martin?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($749.01 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $464.02 a share (−19% against today's $576.16). At $189.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Lockheed Martin cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lockheed Martin would cost about $806.62 a share, $186.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.