Filing Flows › Cheniere Energy (LNG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Cheniere Energy (LNG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($363.44 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $221.65 a share (−21% against today's $279.57). At $101.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $363.44 | today's $279.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 206.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $75.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $22.6B | |
| − Cash | $1.7B | |
| + Other claims | $5.4B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $101.5B | 12.7× EBITDA of $8.0B |
| Fees | $2.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $44.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $59.5B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.1B | $8.7B | $3.4B | $880M | $43.2B |
| Year 2 | $26.8B | $9.2B | $3.3B | $1.2B | $42.0B |
| Year 3 | $28.2B | $9.8B | $3.2B | $1.5B | $40.4B |
| Year 4 | $29.4B | $10.2B | $3.1B | $1.9B | $38.6B |
| Year 5 | $30.3B | $10.5B | $3.0B | $2.2B | $36.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $109.9B | |
| − Debt left | $36.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $73.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.24× | on $59.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $279.57; the IRR reaches 20% at $221.65 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $307.53 | 9.1% |
| 20% | $335.48 | 6.5% |
| 30% | $363.44 | 4.3% |
| 40% | $391.40 | 2.4% |
| 50% | $419.36 | 0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $8.0B | 34.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.5B | |
| Capital spending | $3.4B | |
| Debt | $22.6B | |
| Cash | $1.7B | |
| Share price | $279.57 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cheniere Energy would cost about $370.43 a share, $76.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $335.48 | $69.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $370.43 | $76.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $424.39 | $87.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Cheniere Energy's latest quarter
Cheniere Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $6.2B (+39% year over year), operating margin 31.0%, net earnings $1.2B, operating cash flow $2.5B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Cheniere Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Cheniere Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($363.44 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $221.65 a share (−21% against today's $279.57). At $101.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Cheniere Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cheniere Energy would cost about $370.43 a share, $76.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.