Filing Flows › Lowe's Companies (LOW) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lowe's Companies (LOW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($295.41 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $178.09 a share (−22% against today's $227.24). At $202.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $295.41 | today's $227.24 plus 30% |
| × shares | 560.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $165.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $40.2B | |
| − Cash | $3.4B | |
| = Enterprise value | $202.2B | 15.9× EBITDA of $12.8B |
| Fees | $4.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $70.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $136.1B | 66% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $97.7B | $13.8B | $5.4B | $3.9B | $66.3B |
| Year 2 | $104.3B | $14.7B | $5.1B | $4.7B | $61.6B |
| Year 3 | $110.0B | $15.5B | $4.7B | $5.6B | $56.0B |
| Year 4 | $114.7B | $16.2B | $4.3B | $6.4B | $49.6B |
| Year 5 | $118.1B | $16.7B | $3.8B | $7.2B | $42.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $214.3B | |
| − Debt left | $42.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $171.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.26× | on $136.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $227.24; the IRR reaches 20% at $178.09 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $249.96 | 9.3% |
| 20% | $272.69 | 6.9% |
| 30% | $295.41 | 4.8% |
| 40% | $318.14 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $340.86 | 1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $90.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $12.8B | 14.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.5B | |
| Capital spending | $2.3B | |
| Debt | $40.2B | |
| Cash | $3.4B | |
| Share price | $227.24 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lowe's Companies would cost about $301.09 a share, $168.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $272.69 | $152.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $301.09 | $168.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $344.95 | $193.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Lowe's Companies' latest quarter
Lowe's Companies, Q2 FY27: revenue $26.0B (+8% year over year), operating margin 13.7%, net earnings $2.4B, operating cash flow $3.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lowe's Companies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Lowe's Companies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($295.41 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $178.09 a share (−22% against today's $227.24). At $202.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Lowe's Companies cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lowe's Companies would cost about $301.09 a share, $168.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.