Filing Flows › Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($100.06 a share) would return a loss of about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $35.82 a share (−53% against today's $76.97). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.41× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $100.06 | today's $76.97 plus 30% |
| × shares | 70.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $348M | |
| − Cash | $265M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.1B | 31.8× EBITDA of $223M |
| Fees | $142M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.0B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.4B | $216M | $93.8M | −$121M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $2.4B | $213M | $103M | −$130M | $1.5B |
| Year 3 | $2.4B | $213M | $113M | −$140M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.4B | $216M | $124M | −$154M | $1.8B |
| Year 5 | $2.5B | $223M | $136M | −$171M | $1.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 24.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.5B | |
| − Debt left | $1.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.59× | on $6.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −10.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $76.97; the IRR reaches 20% at $35.82 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $84.67 | −6.4% |
| 20% | $92.36 | −8.4% |
| 30% | $100.06 | −10.1% |
| 40% | $107.76 | −11.7% |
| 50% | $115.45 | −13.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $223M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $138M | |
| Capital spending | $251M | |
| Debt | $348M | |
| Cash | $265M | |
| Share price | $76.97 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Louisiana-Pacific would cost about $101.99 a share, $7.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $92.36 | $6.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $101.99 | $7.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $116.84 | $8.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.41× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Louisiana-Pacific's latest quarter
Louisiana-Pacific, Q3 2026: revenue $691M (+4% year over year), operating margin 4.2%, net earnings $23.0M, operating cash flow $112M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Louisiana-Pacific being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Louisiana-Pacific?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($100.06 a share) would return a loss of about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $35.82 a share (−53% against today's $76.97).
What would a takeover of Louisiana-Pacific cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Louisiana-Pacific would cost about $101.99 a share, $7.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.