Filing Flows › LAM Research (LRCX) › Takeover & LBO
Is LAM Research (LRCX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($240.76 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $132.57 a share (−28% against today's $185.20). At $298.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $240.76 | today's $185.20 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,255.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $302.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.7B | |
| − Cash | $7.4B | |
| = Enterprise value | $298.6B | 29.5× EBITDA of $10.1B |
| Fees | $6.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $55.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $249.0B | 82% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $28.2B | $10.9B | $4.3B | $4.5B | $51.1B |
| Year 2 | $30.1B | $11.7B | $3.9B | $5.4B | $45.7B |
| Year 3 | $31.8B | $12.3B | $3.5B | $6.3B | $39.4B |
| Year 4 | $33.1B | $12.8B | $3.0B | $7.2B | $32.2B |
| Year 5 | $34.1B | $13.2B | $2.5B | $8.0B | $24.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 22.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $298.9B | |
| − Debt left | $24.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $274.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $249.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $185.20; the IRR reaches 20% at $132.57 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $203.72 | 6.4% |
| 20% | $222.24 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $240.76 | 2.0% |
| 40% | $259.28 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $277.80 | −1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $26.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.1B | 38.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $462M | |
| Capital spending | $1.0B | |
| Debt | $3.7B | |
| Cash | $7.4B | |
| Share price | $185.20 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 13% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, LAM Research would cost about $259.28 a share, $325.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $212.42 | $266.8B |
| Median | 40% | $259.28 | $325.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $296.69 | $372.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
LAM Research's latest quarter
LAM Research, Q1 FY27: revenue $8.2B (+54% year over year), operating margin 40.0%, net earnings $2.8B, operating cash flow $3.5B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is LAM Research being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy LAM Research?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($240.76 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $132.57 a share (−28% against today's $185.20). At $298.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of LAM Research cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, LAM Research would cost about $259.28 a share, $325.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.