Filing Flows › Stride (LRN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Stride (LRN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.87 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $101.87 | today's $78.36 plus 30% |
| × shares | 44.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $418M | |
| − Cash | $789M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.2B | 7.0× EBITDA of $598M |
| Fees | $83.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.7B | 4.6× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.6B | $613M | $209M | $333M | $2.4B |
| Year 2 | $2.7B | $629M | $183M | $365M | $2.0B |
| Year 3 | $2.7B | $646M | $155M | $400M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.8B | $665M | $125M | $438M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $2.9B | $685M | $91.2M | $479M | $713M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.6B | |
| − Debt left | $713M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.86× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 13.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $78.36.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $86.20 | 22.0% |
| 20% | $94.03 | 17.5% |
| 30% | $101.87 | 13.2% |
| 40% | $109.70 | 8.9% |
| 50% | $117.54 | 4.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $598M | 23.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $132M | |
| Capital spending | $285K | |
| Debt | $418M | |
| Cash | $789M | |
| Share price | $78.36 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Stride would cost about $109.70 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $89.88 | $4.0B |
| Median | 40% | $109.70 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $125.53 | $5.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Stride's latest quarter
Stride, Q1 FY27: revenue $639M (+3% year over year), operating margin 13.2%, net earnings $64.9M, operating cash flow −$125M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Stride being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Stride?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($101.87 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Stride cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Stride would cost about $109.70 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.