Filing Flows › Landstar System (LSTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Landstar System (LSTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($185.97 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.0× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $185.97 | today's $143.05 plus 30% |
| × shares | 33.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $351M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.9B | 23.2× EBITDA of $256M |
| Fees | $119M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.7B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.7B | $276M | $108M | $81.0M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $6.1B | $295M | $101M | $103M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $6.4B | $311M | $93.6M | $126M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $6.7B | $325M | $83.9M | $150M | $948M |
| Year 5 | $6.9B | $334M | $72.5M | $173M | $775M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.9B | |
| − Debt left | $775M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $4.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $143.05.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $157.36 | 6.8% |
| 20% | $171.66 | 4.1% |
| 30% | $185.97 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $200.27 | −0.2% |
| 50% | $214.58 | −2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $256M | 4.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $41.4M | |
| Capital spending | $13.8M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $351M | |
| Share price | $143.05 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Landstar System would cost about $200.27 a share, $6.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $164.08 | $5.6B |
| Median | 40% | $200.27 | $6.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $229.17 | $7.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.0× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Landstar System's latest quarter
Landstar System, Q3 2026: revenue $1.5B (+25% year over year), operating margin 4.3%, net earnings $48.0M, operating cash flow $70.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Landstar System being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Landstar System?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($185.97 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Landstar System cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Landstar System would cost about $200.27 a share, $6.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.