Filing Flows › Macy's (M) › Takeover & LBO
Is Macy's (M) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($31.45 a share) would return about 17% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.39 a share (22% against today's $24.19). Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $31.45 | today's $24.19 plus 30% |
| × shares | 271.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.4B | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $9.7B | 4.8× EBITDA of $2.0B |
| Fees | $194M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.3B | 3.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $3.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $22.9B | $2.0B | $482M | $1.0B | $5.3B |
| Year 2 | $23.1B | $2.0B | $403M | $1.1B | $4.2B |
| Year 3 | $23.5B | $2.1B | $320M | $1.2B | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $24.0B | $2.1B | $232M | $1.2B | $1.8B |
| Year 5 | $24.7B | $2.2B | $137M | $1.3B | $456M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.4B | |
| − Debt left | $456M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.9B | |
| Money multiple | 2.21× | on $3.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 17.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $24.19; the IRR reaches 20% at $29.39 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $26.61 | 23.9% |
| 20% | $29.03 | 20.5% |
| 30% | $31.45 | 17.2% |
| 40% | $33.87 | 14.0% |
| 50% | $36.29 | 10.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $22.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.0B | 8.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $873M | |
| Capital spending | $347M | |
| Debt | $2.4B | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $24.19 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Macy's would cost about $32.05 a share, $8.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $29.03 | $7.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $32.05 | $8.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $36.72 | $10.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Macy's latest quarter
Macy's, Q2 FY27: revenue $5.1B (+1% year over year), operating margin 4.8%, net earnings $169M, operating cash flow $294M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Macy's being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Macy's?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($31.45 a share) would return about 17% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.39 a share (22% against today's $24.19).
What would a takeover of Macy's cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Macy's would cost about $32.05 a share, $8.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.